The Five Endgames Women Face in the Modern Sexual Marketplace

The episode "The Way It All Ends" by Dr. Orion Taraban, host of Psychacks, delves into the current state of the sexual marketplace, highlighting historically low rates of marriage, relationships, and hookups. A primary driver of this trend is identified as female hypergamy, coupled with the observation that young, childless women in the West are outperforming men in education and earnings. This creates a shrinking pool of desirable partners for women who seek to "mate and date up," as men are underperforming relative to their female counterparts. A peculiar aspect of modern courtship is women's continued reticence to initiate, consistently waiting for the man to "make the offer" across all levels of commitment, despite questioning other traditional gender roles.

Dr. Taraban emphasizes that while this dynamic may seem unproblematic for women in their 20s, the "game changes at 30." At this age, the average male sexual marketplace value (SMV) begins to exceed that of the average woman. Consequently, the "same offer" of marriage or commitment becomes "increasingly expensive" for women as they age, as their SMV decreases over time. This phenomenon risks pricing women out of the market if they do not adapt to these changing conditions. The podcast then introduces five "endgames" or possible outcomes for women, which logically cover all scenarios given the discussed factors: female hypergamy, shifting SMV, and women's non-initiation.

The five endgames are analyzed for their likelihood, drawing parallels to behavioral economics and consumer purchasing decisions. Scenario A (keeping a high price tag and securing a high-value man) is deemed the least likely, occurring only about 1% of the time, as high-value men with abundant "optionality" are unlikely to pay more than necessary. Scenario B (lowering the price tag to secure a high-value man) is also rare, estimated at 6%, requiring women to make concessions. The episode posits that approximately two-thirds of women will face endgames C or D, involving settling for lower-value men, often driven by "pressured necessity" or the desire for children as their reproductive window shortens. Scenario E (ending up unpartnered) is a rapidly growing outcome, projected to affect one in three women, with 80% of childless women reaching this state unintentionally, particularly high-earning, educated women who price themselves out.

Ultimately, the most common outcome, affecting about 53% of women (Scenario C), is ending up with a lower-value man willing to pay a higher "price tag" for a relationship, leading to women securing the relationship they want but not necessarily the man they prefer. This can result in "low-grade marital dysfunction" and dissatisfaction, akin to wanting a designer bag but settling for a knockoff. The podcast concludes by stressing that women will never have a better chance to secure their preferred relationship than "today," implying an urgency to consider these dynamics. The entire distribution of these endgames hinges on women's continued reluctance to initiate, suggesting that a shift in this behavior could significantly alter the landscape.

Fewer people are getting married entering into relationships or even hooking up than ever before.

Women are The Gatekeepers of sex and Men Are The Gatekeepers of commitment.

The man has been expected to proposition the woman... it is always the man who makes the offer to the woman.

30 is the age at which the average male sexual Marketplace value exceeds the average woman's sexual Marketplace value for the very first time.

Since the offer is the same but a woman's sexual Marketplace value decreases as she ages the same offer becomes increasingly expensive as a function of time.

The men who have what women want are the least likely to give it to them.

Failing to plan is planning to fail.

About 80 percent of women who never have children arrived at this outcome unintentionally.

Most women end up with the relationship they want but not with the man they would prefer.

The number one reason why your woman's always mad is because you ain't her first choice.

For most women they will never have a better chance of securing the relationship they want with the man they prefer than today.