Extreme Climate Change in a Post-COVID-19 World: Political Futures and Economic Transformations

This podcast episode, featuring Geoff Mann, delves into the dire realities of climate change, drawing heavily from IPCC reports and recent data. Mann highlights that the world is on track to hit the 1.5-degree Celsius warming target between 2030 and 2050, necessitating a "fundamental transformation" of energy systems, political-economic arrangements, and potentially even the material structure of the planet. He emphasizes that global inequality is a primary challenge, as the wealthiest, who are the highest emitters, are also the most powerful and resistant to change. Mann critiques the ineffectiveness of carbon taxes and points out that despite increases in non-fossil fuel energy, overall fossil fuel production continues to grow, rendering efforts insufficient. He also argues for a systematic underestimation of the problem's scale and its disproportionate impacts on the poor and vulnerable, a point he and his co-author Joel contest even in IPCC assessments.

The core of Mann's discussion revolves around a four-fold framework of political futures developed with Joel, designed to explore potential responses to the climate crisis based on the axes of capitalism/non-capitalism and planetary sovereignty/no sovereignty. These trajectories are: Climate Leviathan (capitalist, sovereign), Climate Behemoth (capitalist, no sovereignty), Climate Mao (non-capitalist, sovereign), and Climate X (non-capitalist, no sovereignty, emergent refusal). Each framework represents a distinct approach to solving the "collective action problem" posed by climate change, ranging from a Hobbesian submission to a global authority (Leviathan) to a nationalist, anti-globalist stance (Behemoth), or a radical, agrarian-inspired political response (Mao).

Mann suggests that the Climate Leviathan approach, often seen in "green Keynesian" proposals for state intervention and market incentives, is a "poor answer" because it frames the problem as an incentive issue, denying the possibility of true solidarity and failing to address underlying distributional inequalities. Climate Behemoth, exemplified by figures like Sarah Palin and Donald Trump, is deemed "no answer" due to its refusal of international coordination and dedication to the current capitalist order. Climate Mao, while not currently existing, is presented as a possible radical response from vulnerable populations in Asia. Climate X, an "inchoate but unfolding or emergent refusal of the other three orders," is presented as the only potential "answer," though its form and outcomes remain uncertain, potentially leading to emancipatory local responses or other unforeseen trajectories.

In a post-COVID-19 world, Mann draws parallels between the proposed solutions for economic recovery and the Climate Leviathan strategy, noting the potential for a "punctuated Keynesianism" where states intervene temporarily before returning to market-based incentives. He underscores that the fundamental question remains: what political processes can achieve the necessary drastic emissions reductions (45% by 2030, 99% by 2050) in a just manner, and what political outcomes will emerge if these targets are not met? The podcast ultimately challenges listeners to consider the profound political and economic transformations required, beyond mere technological shifts, to confront a world increasingly "on fire."

"if we want to hit 1.5 degrees we current on the current trajectory we will hit 1.5 degrees some time between 2030 and 2050"

"a fundamental transformation of not only our energy system but certainly Joel and I would argue with our political economic arrangements and arguably with even perhaps the material structure of the planet"

"the wealthiest people on the planet emit the most which is also to say that the most powerful people on the planet are those who have to change their behavior and lifestyles the most"

"the carbon tax has been effectively meaningless certainly in terms of changing behavior and the energy system"

"the only thing that matters for the climate is the size of the blue bar the overall fossil fuel energy production is growing and continues to grow right now"

"you can drive to hell in a Tesla just as easily as an f-150"

"there is a perhaps I might even use the word drastic but certainly a systematic under appreciation or under estimation of the scale the problem ahead of us here"

"what politics is produced by a world that is on fire"

"climate change is the greatest collection of action collective action problem the world has ever known"

"the capacity of global capitalism to persist in its existing form without radical transformation in the face of climate change is a question that we have to ask"

"the social orders persistence dependent upon all submitting and obeying one power in whom would be vested the capacity of force obedience but the but the deal medians would be bought with the promise of peace"

"climate X which we see as a sort of inchoate but unfolding or emergent refusal of the other three orders"