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NewEconomicThinking
NewEconomicThinking·August 23, 2020

The Pandemic's Disproportionate Impact on Developing Nations, Exacerbated Inequalities, and the Future of Global Governance

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Summary

Jayati Ghosh discusses the unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global response, particularly the severe lockdowns. She argues that while lockdowns might be necessary, their drastic imposition, especially in developing countries, creates more devastation than the illness itself, largely due to the lack of social protection for vast informal workforces. India's draconian lockdown is highlighted as an example, leading to massive job losses and humanitarian crises like hunger, despite ample food stocks. She emphasizes that the response assumes "Northern lifestyles" which are incompatible with the realities of crowded living conditions and daily wage earners in the Global South, where physical distancing and basic amenities are often unavailable. Ghosh distinguishes between physical distancing and social distancing, preferring the former to avoid implying social isolation. She highlights how the pandemic and policy responses exacerbate existing inequalities, both within countries (between those with stable incomes/housing and the informal sector) and globally (between advanced economies with fiscal capacity and developing nations facing financial and economic crises). She links the vulnerability to the pandemic to pre-existing policy choices like declining public health spending, privatization of essential services, and the burden on the care economy. The discussion also nuances the concept of globalization, suggesting it was already unraveling before the pandemic, with growing nationalist tendencies and a questioning of the existing international architecture. Ghosh advocates for immediate distribution of excess food stocks in countries like India to combat starvation. She stresses the need for massive fiscal stimulus in developing countries, but critically, argues that these stimulus measures must be channeled into ecologically viable activities, aligning with a "global green new deal." She suggests that central banks should be willing to finance these green initiatives. The importance of valuing care work, often unpaid and undervalued, is presented as a crucial shift, not just for gender equality but as a means of "transcending capitalism," recognizing its massive subsidy to economic systems. The podcast explores the long-term implications for the global system, predicting a post-pandemic world with increased suspicion of migration and foreign goods, and a decline in open-ended travel. The "neoliberal organization" tenets are seen as no longer valid. The crisis is expected to expose the injustices of global capitalism and the flaws in nation-state governance, but Ghosh cautions that it won't automatically lead to positive change; it requires conscious effort to "capture the public imagination." The discussion also connects the pandemic to the ongoing climate crisis, arguing that the urgency for a "global green new deal" is now a matter of survival, not just desirability, and that the economic desperation post-pandemic could unfortunately overshadow environmental concerns in developing nations, despite their acute vulnerability to climate change.

Key Quotes

"the kind of simple imposition of absolutely drastic knockdowns is often something that creates more devastation than perhaps even the illness might have particularly in developing countries that have nothing in the shape of social protection for the vast majority of their workforce"
"this is being done it's never been done before that you basically told the whole global economy stop stop everything stop whatever you're doing production consumption distribution everything is vaulted"
"in developing countries with large informal sectors is a recipe for complete catastrophe for many many people"
"the pressures of extreme and unacceptable inequality will be heightened by these financial crisis heightened by the displacements that occur because of climate and exacerbated by policy that favors the wealthy to the detriment of society at large"
"the very nature of this disease which is a reflection of the broader growth of inequality and the policies that have pushed inequality in all our countries over the last few years particularly the decline in public health spending per capita"
"most developing countries haven't really been affected by the pandemic yet in a very significant way... nonetheless these are economies that are already devastated by these global market forces"
"we're going to wake up to a different world a world in which the people will be much more suspicious not just of migration but even of goods coming from abroad"
"the earlier tenets of your liberal organization are not going to be valid"
"the pandemic has highlighted one source of fragility but the other source of huge fragility has not gone away and in fact it probably is going to be rearing its ugly head very very soon in all kinds of other ways"
"care work has been a massive subsidy to capitalism and recognizing the critical drone it has played is a major means of transcending capitalism"

Concepts

Themes

  • Exacerbation of global and domestic inequalities
  • Vulnerability and unique challenges of developing economies
  • Critique of neoliberal globalization and existing international architecture
  • The evolving role and accountability of government in crises
  • Interconnectedness of economic, health, and climate crises
  • The re-evaluation of care work and its economic significance
  • The future of global economic integration and national self-reliance
  • The tension between immediate economic recovery and long-term sustainability goals

Related to:

Economics Insights

Market Implications

  • Collapse of trade, tourism, and travel-related services; dramatic reversals of capital flows; currency depreciation; increased sovereign and private debt servicing costs; domestic financial distress; supply shortages leading to inflation.

Key Concepts

  • Informal sector, social protection, fiscal stimulus, monetized deficits, global value chains, public purpose, care economy, crony capitalism, social unsustainability.

Data Cited

  • 120 million people in India lost employment over three weeks; 77 million tons of food grain in Indian government storage; US stimulus packages of 2 trillion USD (with another 2 trillion in offing) and Federal Reserve actions amounting to 30-40% of GDP.

Practical Applications

  • Immediate distribution of excess food stocks; massive fiscal stimulus directed towards ecologically viable activities; central bank willingness to buy up debt for new green activities; re-evaluation and proper valuation of care work.

Risks Mentioned

  • Humanitarian catastrophe (hunger, non-COVID illnesses); social unsustainability; inflation due to supply shortages and currency depreciation; political instability; rise of authoritarianism and surveillance states; long-term economic stagnation in developing countries.

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