Adam Tooze on COVID-19's Economic Poly-Crisis, Geopolitical Shifts, and the Future of Global Order

This episode features Adam Tooze, author of "Shutdown: How Covid Shook the World's Economy," discussing the multifaceted impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Tooze frames the crisis as a "polycrisis," a term coined by Jean-Claude Juncker and derived from Edgar Morin, highlighting the simultaneous eruption of pre-existing tensions like climate change, racial injustice, economic inequality, and geopolitical power imbalances, all exacerbated by the pandemic. He describes the book as a necessary response to history catching up with him, drawing parallels and distinctions with the 2008 financial crisis, particularly the terrifying instability in the treasury repo market, which serves as the fundamental safe asset for the global economy.

A central argument revolves around the unprecedented scale and promptness of fiscal and monetary responses globally, which Tooze views as a positive surprise despite the underlying disappointment of widespread public health failures. He praises the "pharma industrial complex" for its remarkable ability to develop multiple vaccines but laments the subsequent failure in global rollout, which he attributes more to production bottlenecks and logistics than patent issues. The discussion also delves into the debate surrounding the massive US stimulus packages, with Tooze dismissing inflation concerns as "overdone" but expressing sympathy for critiques regarding the opportunity cost, specifically the lack of a significant "green element" in the initial packages, a missed political moment for infrastructure and climate investment.

The conversation then shifts to the enduring and escalating tensions that COVID-19 brought to the fore. Tooze notes that none of the vectors of tension – inequality, US political dysfunction, European instability, climate stress, or US-China relations – are abating. He highlights the "ferocity and ideological intensity" of the US-China confrontation in 2020, including a novel "culture war" directed against American corporate elites for perceived complicity with China. This destabilization of the China-centric globalization network is deemed historically radical, with profound implications for the world economy.

Finally, the episode explores the intricate relationship between class, identity politics, and American democracy. Tooze critiques identity politics detached from class hierarchies, advocating for a progressive strategy that unites both, recognizing that the working class in the US is increasingly diverse. He sees the Biden administration's focus on welfare spending and the care economy as a positive step in this direction. However, he expresses skepticism about America's capacity for global leadership due to its constitutional structure, which he describes as "profoundly problematic as a global hegemon," citing historical precedents like the League of Nations' rejection. The episode concludes with a stark assessment of the US national government's potential as a "busted flush" for sustained progressive politics, leaving the future of both American democracy and global stability uncertain.

"this book is really a response to that light crashed but even more directly it grew out of almost daily commentary on events"

"the treasury market is the alfred mega the fundamental foundation it's the safe asset for the global economy and it gives you an indication of quite how serious this was that that was that was shaking"

"the challenge of history writing and contemporary commentary is to grasp just the radicalism of the world that we're in"

"the surprise is the sheer scale of fiscal and monetary action the disappointment is that we ended up needing it right so the disappointment is the total failure of public health in place after place around the world"

"the fact that the pharma industrial complex when prodded pushed mobilized adequately funded was able to deliver not one but like you know a whole suite of vaccines suitable for different contexts at different price points you know is remarkable testimony to what we have there if we want to mobilize it"

"the inflation thing's overdone... the bigger concern i take israel is more about prioritization and it is stunning that america did the largest set of stimulus packages ever in ever ever and they don't they basically contain no green element whatsoever"

"none of those sources of tension are really being relieved inequality was increased the dysfunction in the american political system is unabated the tensions in europe remain the fundamental issues around the italian debt are unresolved"

"what we really mean is the network of trading relations and manufacturing relations built around china so to have that destabilized is right it's historically historically radical"

"a genuinely progressive strategy of mobilization would would seek to abolish right this this divide between a strategy of identity and a strategy of equality"

"america is profoundly problematic as a global hegemon because of the structure of its of its constitution"