Great Powers and One Planet Faultline: Class, Geopolitics, and the Future of US-China Relations

The podcast panel delves into the complex fault lines between great powers, primarily the United States and China, within the context of a single planet facing common challenges like climate change and pandemics. Dean Baker initiates the discussion by arguing for a class-based analysis over a country-based one, asserting that US trade policies, particularly with China, have systematically decimated the American working class through manufacturing job losses and declining wage premiums. He contends that the current bipartisan shift towards protectionism, framed as industrial policy, continues this trend by benefiting highly educated elites and tech/pharma sectors at the expense of less educated workers, while simultaneously fostering international hostility. Baker proposes open-source technology research in areas like climate and healthcare as an alternative, promoting global cooperation and reducing inequality.

Rob Johnson expands on the domestic discontent, noting the resonance of "the system is rigged" sentiment and the Biden administration's challenge in balancing collaboration with internal despair over wealth distribution. He highlights the "new gilded age" in China and the US's initial fantasy that China would integrate into its system, a notion challenged by initiatives like China 2025 and cybersecurity concerns. Johnson underscores the grave risk of nuclear escalation from conflicts like a Taiwan Strait scenario, referencing Daniel Ellsberg's "The Doomsday Machine," and emphasizes that global survival hinges on collaboration despite both nations' "woundedness" and posturing for conflict. He also points out the extreme wealth concentration in China, mirroring US inequality.

Patrick Lawrence declares the AUKUS security agreement as the start of Cold War II, urging honesty about its origins and the US's "lost in nostalgia" approach to trans-Pacific relations, which he characterizes as a security policy for "satellites" rather than a true foreign policy. He stresses the inescapable 21st-century imperative of parity between the West and non-West, arguing that economic systems are cultural artifacts that can coexist, contrary to the US's ideological view of competition. Lawrence introduces Partha Chatterjee's concept of "governmental technologies," where legitimacy in many parts of the world stems from service delivery and security, a model China effectively employs with its strong public sector.

Andrew Sheng frames AUKUS as the "end of the great bargain" between Nixon and Mao, which facilitated China's integration into the global economy and contributed to decades of prosperity and the "great moderation" of inflation, as noted by Charles Goodhart. He argues that while China contributed to global prosperity, it cannot be blamed for internal income distribution issues in other countries, as China itself faces high inequality. Sheng introduces the "tragedy of horizons," where short-term political and corporate thinking blinds leaders to long-term crises like climate change. He highlights China's ancient history versus America's relatively short one, noting China and India's historical economic dominance. Sheng concludes by questioning why "the alphas are fighting in a burning forest" when global public goods and cooperation are desperately needed to address climate change, pandemics, and the resulting mass poverty and migration, which disproportionately affect the most vulnerable.

"I think we should be thinking foremost of class not country because it's I think talking about conflicting countries really misrepresents a lot of what's going on."

"We had used the United States used trade largely with China but other countries as well to decimate the working class and that's something that's hugely underappreciated in policy circles."

"Basically we're hitting say our less educated segment of the population coming and going giving free trade costing millions of jobs getting rid of the wage premium back in the first decade of the century now we're flipping over and we're going to have protection for our most highly educated workers which is going to mean they'll make a lot of money."

"There is an alternative path looking towards open source technology research and that's what I'll argue strongly we should be looking to do to both advance important goals like climate and health care but also to minimize conflict."

"The fear of something perhaps starting over a military conflict in the Taiwan Straits could lead to a nuclear escalation damage the upper atmosphere and bring essentially an ice age that would destroy the ability to produce food for the population on planet Earth."

"The well-being and survival of humankind depends very very much on a collaboration at a time when each side seems to be what you might call shrugging its shoulders and stiffening its fists as though it's preparing for conflict."

"By my definition the uh August if that's how we say it uh Australia UK US uh security agreement struck just recently is an announcement that cold war ii is on."

"One of the great imperatives of the 21st century I say this a lot in the columns parity between west and non-west is an inescapable feature of this century whether we like it or not."

"Economic systems reflect history traditions social values and so forth right there's no reason why two economic systems cannot coexist and I use that word advisedly but we have it in our minds that if their system is different than ours then they're competing with us."

"America has a history of 270 280 years china has a history of at least 3 000 years right and and and the the the chinese look back on their history in which you know at the time of American independence China and India accounted for half the world's GDP."

"Why are the alphas fighting in a burning forest right why why shouldn't they cook when they cooperate could get us out of all this and this is the real opportunity."

"The biggest lesson if you read the pcc report and the scupta report it says very clearly the and climate change will damage the poorest and the underprivileged far more than the rich."