The Imperative for Mass Tertiary Education: Securing the American Dream and 21st-Century Economic Health

David Deming, a professor at Harvard, argues that mass tertiary education is no longer a luxury but an absolute necessity for the long-run economic health of the United States and for individuals to achieve the American Dream in the 21st century. He posits that just as a high school education was the frontier of necessary knowledge a century ago, a college education now holds that position. This shift is critical because the traditional path to upward mobility—graduating high school and securing a good manufacturing job—is largely obsolete, leading to a significant decline in intergenerational progress, where only about 50% of recent generations are doing better than their parents, compared to over 90% for those born in the 1940s.

The core problem, Deming explains, is that college education, particularly a four-year degree, is not sufficiently accessible due to prohibitive costs and varying quality of preparatory education. He emphasizes that the value of college extends far beyond the direct application of learned facts; it fundamentally teaches a "way of thinking," fosters abstract reasoning, problem-solving, teamwork, and changes one's identity. These are "future-proof skills" that are increasingly demanded by the modern economy, which is dominated by knowledge work. He illustrates this by noting that while specific technical skills (e.g., in STEM fields) offer high initial returns, these returns diminish over time as technology evolves and skills become obsolete, highlighting the enduring value of critical thinking and adaptability.

Deming views a college education as the "best investment a young person can make," despite rapidly rising tuition costs, because the lifetime increase in income from a degree still far outweighs the investment. To make this investment more accessible and less risky, he advocates for increased financial aid, more forgiving loan packages, and income-based repayment options. He draws a historical parallel to the decentralized "high school movement" of 100 years ago, which was crucial for American economic growth in the 20th century, suggesting a similar national investment in mass tertiary education is now required.

Finally, Deming critiques the current American college system as being too elite-driven, with top research universities having limited capacity for undergraduate expansion. He argues that the solution lies not in focusing solely on the Ivy League, but in a significant expansion of public four-year and two-year universities to double the college graduation rate. This mass public investment, he concludes, is essential for preparing the workforce for the demands of the 21st century and ensuring broader societal progress, independent of short-term political debates.

today college is at the frontier of the kind of skills and education you need to succeed in society

we need mass tertiary education mass college education in this country to help us prepare for the 21st century

many many fewer people are actually doing better than their parents

for many people the idea of forward progress is the american dream and for many of us it's more or less a coin flip at this point

education isn't just about the facts you learn and whether you directly use them on the job it's also teaching you a way of thinking and it's changing your identity in a fundamental way

a college education is the best investment a young person can make but it's a risky investment

when technology is changing more rapidly that's actually when you want to invest more in basic skills because basic skills are future proof whereas technical skills have a shelf life

this was really the key to american economic growth in the 20th century

the key problem we have in this country with college education is that it's very much an elite driven system

our challenge as a country is really much more about mass public four-year education or two-year education than it is about what's happening in the ivy league